By 2050 the world’s population is predicted to be just over 9 billion, of whom an unprecedented 22 per cent—some 2 billion people—will be over 60 years old. Without a radical shift in current policies well over half of these, around 1.2 billion, will lack adequate income security, according to a recent un report, World Economic and Social Survey 2007: Development in an Ageing World. Already, as the authors note, ‘Eighty per cent of the world’s population do not have sufficient protection in old age to enable them to face health, disability and income risks . . . In developing countries alone, about 342 million older persons currently lack adequate income security.’ footnote1
The ageing of advanced capitalist societies, above all in Europe and Japan, has become a familiar theme in recent years. But though its causes—rising longevity and a falling birth rate—are strongest in the rich countries and the most rapidly developing states, they are not confined to these regions. By 2050 Asia, including India and China, is expected to have no fewer than 1,249 million old people, comprising 24 per cent of the population.footnote2 In 2005 Africa had only 48 million over-60s, forming 5.2 per cent of the total population; but by 2050 the size of this group is set to quadruple to 207 million, making up 10.3 per cent of the total population. In other words, Africa is expected to have more old people than Latin America and the Caribbean (with 187 million aged 60-plus), and nearly as many as Europe’s 229 million of that age.
What is more, it is the frail and vulnerable ‘old old’ that is the most rapidly growing age cohort in all parts of the world. Today there are 88 million over-80s worldwide; by 2040 it is predicted that there will be 98 million in China alone, 47 million in India and 13 million in Brazil. The global figure for over-80s will rise to 402 million by 2050, according to un Population Division mid-range projections. As the un’s Development in an Ageing World notes:
The demographic transition poses an enormous challenge . . . For the unprotected the notion of retirement does not exist; they must continue to rely on their work, which is a greater challenge for those in advanced age (80 years or over). To survive, older persons also count on the support of the family and the community, which, if also resource-constrained, may not be able to offer solid social insurance. In this regard, older persons who are single, widowed or childless (particularly women) face an even higher risk of destitution.footnote3
The universal, publicly financed old-age pension has been a popular and effective means for reducing poverty and extending social citizenship in all developed states. In the age of globalization it is right that this tried and tested device for protecting the livelihood of the elderly should be installed at a planetary level, by means of a Global Pension paid at a modest rate to every older person, to be financed by a very modest tax on global financial transactions and corporate wealth. In the first instance the worldwide old-age pension could be set at one dollar a day, bearing in mind that even this small sum would help to lift hundreds of millions of the aged out of poverty in every part of the globe.
Poverty and inequality are so great in today’s world that quite modest remedial measures can have a large impact. There are 2.5 billion people living on less than $2 a day, with a probable majority of the elderly falling within this category. The poorest 10 per cent of the world population receive only 0.7 per cent of global income, while the richest decile command some 54 per cent. In this ‘champagne glass’ world, the well-off sip at the glass’s brimming bowl, and the impoverished or struggling remainder supply the slender stem. In such conditions a dollar a day is less than a rounding error to the wealthy, yet would be a life-line to the global aged poor.footnote4
State pension schemes have helped to limit old-age poverty in the developed world, but have not abolished it. In the developing countries, pension arrangements reach only a fifth of the population, and are often very modest anyway. Formal retirement-income schemes cover fewer than 15 per cent of the world’s households. Even states like India and Chile, with growing economies and considerable administrative capacity, fail to deliver basic pensions. India’s old-age pension is means-tested and amounts to only $2 a month for those able to claim it.footnote5 While India’s poor urban dwellers are not poor enough to claim, its poor rural dwellers find it too costly to do so (a ‘pension walla’ may collect the pittance but will charge a heavy commission). Chile’s pension system has been held up as a model, yet it leaves 40 per cent of the population entirely uncovered and furnishes only weak coverage to a further 40 per cent.