Professor Davies asks me to withdraw estimates of the casualties under Stalinism which I advanced over a quarter of a century ago.footnote1 I am happy to do so—having done so already on several occasions; but I must also reply to his own re-misstating of those estimates.
My early prisoner estimates were based on accepting too high a figure for those in nkvd hands at the beginning of 1937 (it should be about 2,750,000 rather than 5 million); and on deducing an arrest figure for 1937–38 of about 7 million, when it should probably be 4.5 to 5 million; but also by underestimating the execution figure.