Thinking the Unthinkable. Herman Kahn, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 25s.
Herman Khan’s central thesis in On Thermonuclear War was that with wide civil defence, nuclear war need not result in total devastation. This is, of course, perfectly acceptable—the only problem being one of degree. If everyone was evacuated to the moon, for instance, a nuclear war could be fought on earth with a very low casualty rate indeed.
His main concern in Thinking about the Unthinkable is to argue against the conventional picture of thermonuclear war. In the past we have talked as if the only kind of war possible is a “spasm” war. That is, both sides throw all they have at the other in one strike so as to do maximum damage. Without adequate civil defence measures such a war would undoubtedly produce something near total devastation in USA, Europe and USSR. Kahn’s main task in his new book is to discuss other kinds of nuclear war which could be fought. A war could, for instance, consist of a series of blackmailing, one-for-one city exchanges. At some point, he argues, one side could call a halt.
If such a war was halted in the early stages, a thermonuclear war would have been fought, and there would have been fewer casualties than during the Second World War.